Investing in the environment

We know if we do nothing in the next 50 years, the world will be in a miserable state.  Climate change and oil depletion would have direct and indirect effect that are hard to imagine.

But what if we assume that we aren’t stupid enough to wait 50 years, but wait only 10 years? A turn around would still be possible, but the individual cost will be higher. If today, we committed to producing an electric vehicle fleet, and conserving oil then jet flight may remain practical. If not, in 10 years we may find it necessary to make jet flight a rare, restricted or at least very expensive service.

It’s kind of like investing for retirement. Let’s say you need a million dollars to retire at 65. If you invested $39,143 at age 30 with an annual return of 10%, you’d meet that goal. If you waited another 10 years till you were 40 you would need to invest $101,526, all other things being equal.

The short of it is, if we wait another 10 years to start, it’s going to be twice as painful. You could have an electric car for the next 50 years, or a guzzler for the next 10 and no air flight for the other 40. Or CFL bulbs for the next 10, and LEDs for the other 40, or incandescent bulbs for the next 10, and a ban on air-conditioning for the other 40. An extra 4 cent per kilowatt from 2020-2030 to build wind/solar power now, or energy rations for 2020-2030 due to decommissioning of coal power plants before the wind/solar replacements are built.

So, what's it going to be?  A little work now, or a lot later?